![]() There are many ways to measure how well a statistical model predicts a binary outcome. And if you’re wrong, there’s a tradeoff between tightening standards to catch the thieves and annoying your customers. With any model, though, you’re never going to to hit 100% accuracy. It must have a model for aspects of a transaction that are likely enough to be fraudulent that it shuts it down. Do credit card thieves often skip town and go grocery shopping? I got a notice on my phone and was able to fix it right away, so it wasn’t the big inconvenience it could have been.īut this led us to wonder what it was about the transaction that led the bank to believe it was fraudulent. My credit card card company believed my Trader Joe’s spree was fraudulent and declined the transaction. On this particular trip, though, we had an unwelcome surprise. We don’t have one where we live (sadly!) so we always stock up on our favorite specialty groceries when we’re near a Trader Joe’s. This year was particularly exciting because a Trader Joe’s just opened in Syracuse. ![]() ![]() Syracuse is about 60 miles from where I live and it has a very nice little zoo. Not too long ago, I was in Syracuse for a family trip to the zoo. ![]()
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